For years, Asia’s World Cup spots have mostly gone to the familiar group of South Korea, Japan, Australia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Occasionally, a new team breaks through, like North Korea in 2010. But for the 2026 World Cup, the stakes are higher with eight automatic spots up for grabs among the 18 teams starting the third round of qualification on Thursday, bringing some lesser-known names into the spotlight.
In Group B, for instance, two out of six teams will qualify by next June. Assuming South Korea secures their 11th consecutive appearance, at least one of Oman, Palestine, Jordan, Kuwait, or Iraq will join them in North America.
Iraq is especially eager to return to the World Cup stage. Their only appearance was in 1986 when the team was under the oppressive management of Saddam Hussein’s son, Uday, who notoriously punished players after their three narrow losses in Mexico. Despite the talent showcased in their 2007 Asian Cup victory, Iraq has struggled to qualify for another World Cup, even under renowned coaches like Zico and Bora Milutinovic.
A major obstacle has been the lack of home advantage; no World Cup qualifiers have been held in Baghdad since before the 2003 US-led invasion. Although FIFA still deems the capital off-limits, Basra could serve as a crucial venue. In the previous round, over 150,000 fans watched Iraq win all three games in the southern port city, making it an intimidating place for any visiting team.
Fans and coach Jesús Casas are ready for the challenge. Casas, who has been at the helm for nearly two years—a rarity in a country that has seen 30 coaching changes this century—recently signed a contract extension until 2027. His coaching has brought stability and a modern style of play to the team, which now features players with international experience from leagues in the Netherlands, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Italy, and England.
One of the rising stars is Ali Jasim, who recently moved to Serie A’s Como. Another is Ali al-Hamadi, who was born near Basra during Saddam’s rule and made history as the first Iraqi to play in the Premier League when he appeared for Ipswich against Liverpool. This cosmopolitan and confident Iraq team starts their campaign against Oman, aiming for a top-two finish to secure their second-ever World Cup appearance.
Iraq and South Korea share not only a respect for Casas but also relief that the other four teams in their group could have been more challenging. South Korea, led by Son Heung-min, faces Palestine in their opening game on Thursday and are expected to win comfortably in Seoul. Palestine, meanwhile, would be thrilled with a fourth-place finish, as the top two teams in each of the three groups of six will qualify automatically, while third and fourth place finishers enter a final round to compete for the last two spots.
Kuwait, which narrowly advanced to the final 18 teams, would also be happy with a fourth-place finish. Jordan, who defeated Iraq and Korea on their way to the Asian Cup final earlier this year, pose the biggest threat to the group favorites. Despite losing their coach, Hussein Ammouta, to Al Jazira in the UAE league, Jordan remains a tough team to beat, especially in Amman. Oman, who came within a point of Australia in their quest for Qatar, will be looking to go one better this time. The competition among the West Asian teams will be fierce, which could work to South Korea’s advantage.
Group C appears tougher on paper, with Japan hosting China in what could be a tense match. However, Japan, the Samurai Blue, are expected to dominate. China, whose only World Cup appearance was in 2002, barely made it to this stage, advancing on a better head-to-head record against Thailand in the previous round.
Japan will once again face off against Australia and Saudi Arabia, and are likely to finish first for the third consecutive time. The Saudis, still finding their footing under Roberto Mancini, will likely battle the Socceroos for second place. Indonesia, one of Asia’s most improved teams with several naturalized players from Europe, could potentially finish above China and Bahrain in fourth place.
Group A may lack the star power of Group C and the intriguing narratives of Group B, but it remains competitive. Iran, often overlooked, should have little trouble securing their spot in North America. Qatar, fresh off their second consecutive Asian Cup win, would likely trade one of those titles for a World Cup berth. Uzbekistan, a team that has frequently come close to qualifying only to fall short at the last minute, are desperate for success and boast a growing pool of young talent. The United Arab Emirates, under Paulo Bento, along with Kyrgyzstan and North Korea, will also be looking to make their mark. The North Koreans, who rarely play and often shun media attention, remain an enigma in the competition.
While the format for Asian qualification has seen significant changes for 2026, some things remain the same. The battle for World Cup spots in Asia is as intense as ever.
